The impossible achieved through Evolution

According to many religious people, Evolution cannot work, because the probability of acheiving the complexity of life is too small.

This page is a test of that math.

I have 64 pieces, which are black on one side, and white on the other.

The chance of all turning the white site up after being tossed, are
2^-64
= 0.00 000 000 000 000 000 005 4...
= 1 / 18 446 744 073 709 551 616

This means that I would have to throw on average 18 446 744 073 709 551 616 times for each time all turned the white side up. This is far too seldom to actually happen in practice, so it does not happen.

However, when I try doing this with the method of Evolution, which have selection, I get all 64 pieces white side up after usually about 8 tosses. Here is an example of this:
  • 1a. First toss.
    I toss all the 64 pieces, and 28 turned white side up.

  • 1b. First selection.
    I selected the 36 black pieces.

  • 2. Second toss.
    I tossed the 36 black pieces, and 15 of them turned white side up. The total is now 43 white ones, and 21 black ones.

  • 3. Third toss.
    The 21 black ones are selected, and tossed. 10 turn up white, making 53 white and 11 black.

  • 4. Fourth toss.
    62 white, 2 black.

  • 5. Fifth toss.
    62 white, 2 black.

  • 6. Sixth toss.
    64 white, 0 black.
So, I only had to toss 6 times, not 18 446 744 073 709 551 616 times.

Further calculation shows that 8 times is the true average number of tosses to get all 64 pieces white side up through evolution.

2004.7.14

Any comment?